Understanding the past to predict the future: the evolution of butterfly-plant networks and its implications for the future of European butterfly biodiversity in a changing climate

Global change is rapidly restructuring habitats and landscapes across the world. With such change, we are also changing the availability of resources for millions of species.

The results are evident as, on one hand, population declines, and on the other hand, the emergence of crop pests and invasive species, who thrive in periods of environmental change. In both cases, the risk of biodiversity loss is high.

Thus, understanding the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of species interactions in the face of change is one of the major challenges facing ecologists today.

Here I propose to take advantage of the existing data for European butterflies and their host plants to advance our ability to forecast the response of entire ecological networks to climate change.

I will first characterize the process of host repertoire evolution through the diversification of butterflies in order to estimate the fundamental host repertoire (all hosts the species is able to feed on) of each extant butterfly species.

Then, using data on the distribution of host plants and butterfly species across Europe and Species Distribution Modeling, I will predict current and future species co-occurrence according to various climate scenarios.

Combining these results, I will characterize the network of all possible butterfly-plant interactions in Europe today and in the future.

Finally, I will quantify changes in network stability and resilience, which determine the evolutionary fate of European butterflies.