Bridging the gap between epidemiological modeling and animal health surveillance - the case of Salmonella Dublin in cattle

This proposal concerns Salmonella Dublin in cattle. We will develop computational Salmonella models for use in animal health surveillance. Salmonellosis is the second most common zoonotic disease in the EU. In cattle, infections usually cause clinical disease, increased calf mortality and decreased milk production.

Our goal is to provide tools for simulating the spread and identifying the most effective strategies for control and possible eradication of Salmonella in cattle and, in the longer run, for other infectious zoonotic diseases. The proposal consists of three parts:S. Dublin case study.

We will close specific knowledge gaps as identified in a strategy document by five Swedish governmental agencies and design a disease spread model for S. Dublin in Swedish dairy cattle.Software.

Our data-driven free software SimInf will be expanded with both the developed Salmonella model and the parameterization methodology.Methodology. A Bayesian parameterization scheme suitable for disease spread models will be developed. Recent data on S.

Dublin in Swedish cattle herds will be used to arrive at a Salmonella model with explicitly known statistical power.The output novelties include a quantitative Salmonella in silico model (A+B) and new methods for forming disease spread models (B+C).

The interdisciplinary team behind the proposal has the right profile for all these tasks: expertise in numerical modeling, epidemiological software, and animal health surveillance and control.