Unwilling or unwanted? Explaining the decline of mediation in armed conflicts

At the core of international mediation lies an underexplored puzzle, which this project seeks to resolve: while the capacity to mediate in armed conflicts has expanded immensely over the last decades, the proportion of conflicts that actually receive mediation has declined. How can we explain this counter-intuitive pattern?

Is it because mediators are increasingly unwilling to become involved, or is it because belligerents are increasingly resisting mediation efforts?

Theoretically, the project advances previous literature by developing a framework that incorporates both supply and demand explanations for why mediation occurs.

We posit that major trends in contemporary armed conflicts, such as radicalization and fragmentation, may have reduced the demand for mediation, while shifts in the international conflict management regime, such as the increasing proscription of armed groups, may have reduced its supply.

Empirically, the project leverages a three-pronged research strategy consisting of: 1) statistical analysis of the determinants of mediation; 2) a vignette experiment involving mediation practitioners, and 3) an in-depth study of mediation offers and requests during the Syrian civil war, which together will maximize our ability to address and resolve the puzzle.

This four-year project brings together three leading scholars on mediation and negotiations to address one of today’s most important questions in the study of armed conflicts and their resolution.