EAR-PF: Closing the gap between analogue studies and numerical lava flow models using insights from the 2018 Kilauea eruption

Dr. Elisabeth Gallant has been granted an NSF EAR Postdoctoral Fellowship to carry out research and educational activities at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory, USGS Alaska Volcano Observatory, alongside Dr Matt Patrick, Dr Hannah Dietterich, and Dr Janine Kavanagh at the University of Liverpool (UK). This project seeks to advance numerical lava flow models by using data collected during the 2018 eruption of Kilauea and novel analogue modeling techniques to better understand controls on lava flow emplacement.

Lava flows, although generally less deadly than other volcanic hazards, can be extremely disruptive because they displace populations, destroy property, and damage vital infrastructure. The 2018 lower East Rift Zone (LERZ) eruption of Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii, covered a residential area two-thirds the size of Manhattan, destroyed 716 structures over a period of four months, and cost $800 million to recover from.

One way to help mitigate negative impacts of lava flows is by forecasting the potential paths of future eruptions to help guide evacuation planning and land use decisions. Computational modeling has become the established method to forecast the impact of lava flow hazards. The computer models developed during this fellowship will take into account factors we know are critical for determining inundation patterns, specifically how changes in the amount of lava erupting at the vent over time (effusion rate) determines what happens further down in the flow (e.g., the ability of the lava flow to forge a new inundation path by channelizing or breaking out up-flow).

The 2018 LERZ eruption provides an unprecedented opportunity to improve our knowledge of the relationships between effusion rate, flow channelization, and breakouts due to extensive monitoring and data collection. New techniques in analogue modeling, developed at the University of Liverpool, will quantify these relationships and help address problems of scaling between laboratory models and the real world.

Insights from these analogue models will then be used to improve computational lava flow models. This project will advance the fundamental understanding of lava inundation through the use of multi-scale models to investigate hazards, addressing one of the grand challenges in volcano science established by the National Academy of Science. This work also aligns with the goals of the US Volcano Science Center.

Outputs from this project will be used to help design accessible educational materials to increase hazard communication through the USGS Volcanic Hazards Program and would complement existing USGS Geonarratives for volcanic landscapes.

This study will advance the development of lava flow forecasting tools by using new analogue modeling techniques and high-resolution data from the 2018 LERZ eruption to further quantify the impact of dynamic eruption source parameters (ESPs) on lava flow emplacement patterns. The 2018 LERZ eruption of Kilauea Volcano provides an unprecedented opportunity to improve our knowledge of the processes that govern lava flow emplacement and advance our ability to model flow field evolution.

Specifically, it will focus on the impact that variations in ESPs have on channel evolution and breakouts, which is notably absent in the current computational forecasting landscape. Channels help control where the lava goes and how fast it arrives, which are important factors in assessing inundation hazards. Approaching this problem from the analogue, numerical, and real world scale of the problem provides a robust foundation for advancing the field of lava flow inundation forecasting.

This work will combine insights from the robust suite of data acquired by the USGS during the 2018 LERZ eruption and new techniques pioneered by the MagmaLab at the University of Liverpool that allow for 4D imaging of analogue flow models to develop open-access numerical lava flow models. Educational materials will be developed to augment hazard communication materials at the USGS Volcano Hazards Program.

This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.