Merging machine learning and mechanistic models to improve prediction and inference in emerging epidemics

PROJECT SUMMARY When an outbreak of an established or emerging infectious disease occurs we ask a standard set of questions that are critical to a lifesaving public health response: Where will future incidence occur? How many cases will there be? And where can we most effectively intervene? The proposed research is motivated by real world

instances where answering these questions was critical to making practical public health decisions, and current methods came up short: from deciding if and where to build additional Ebola Treatment Units in the 2014-15 West African Ebola epidemic, to identifying priority districts where oral cholera vaccine should be used in the

2016-17 cholera outbreak in Yemen, to picking locations where sufficient cases might occur to selecting and prioritizing interventions to slow the spread of COVID-19 worldwide. Forecasts informing such decisions are typically generated either using an epidemic model that relies on knowledge of the disease transmission

mechanism and epidemic theory or using a statistical model to project the expected number of cases based on the relationship between covariates and observed counts. However, both approaches are subject to limitations, particularly early in an epidemic when few cases are observed. This project is based on the overarching

scientific premise that inferences that combine the strengths of mechanistic epidemic models and statistical covariate models will substantially outperform either approach alone in forecasting and making decisions to confront emerging infectious disease threats. Specifically, this project aims to (1) Develop a framework to

forecast incidence in ongoing outbreaks that merges mechanistic and machine learning approaches; (2) Validate the framework using retrospective data and apply the framework to inform decision making in emerging epidemics; (3) Integrate this inferential forecasting framework into causal decision theory

to optimize critical actions in the public health response to emerging epidemics; and (4) Develop accessible and extensible tools for forecasting and decision analysis in infectious disease epidemics. We will validate these approaches using rigorous simulation studies and by applying the proposed approaches

to retrospective data from important recent epidemics (e.g., Ebola, Cholera and COVID-19, as mentioned above). We will prospectively apply our approach to inform the response to emerging disease threats that occur during the project period, including the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. To ensure that the tools developed

are useful, efficient, and user friendly, we will work with international humanitarian organizations responding to epidemics. Successful completion of these aims will provide a flexible and validated framework for forecasting and decision making during ongoing epidemics, while allowing for innovation in mechanistic and statistical

approaches. In doing so it will provide tools to optimize responses and reduce morbidity and mortality during public health crises.