Real-time Monitoring of Deep Crustal Mass Redistribution for Timely Prediction of Earthquake using Integrated Geodetic, Gravity and Seismic Data

The proposed REMCRUMR research is a concerted effort designed to get as close as possible to being able to predict the time (to an accuracy of 1 week) and location (to a accuracy of 100 x 100 km) of occurrence of imminent devastating earthquakes (M>5) based on lithosphere strain and upper mantle dynamics.

It makes use of a multidisciplinary approach involving applied gravimetry, satellite geodesy, digital signal processing and seismology.

Applied Gravimetry is used as an alternative approach to the highly erratic electromagnetic phenomena, and forms the core of the integrated approaches.

Geodetic data have been integrated to give information about plates motion, strain conditions and rupture-risk modelling.

Seismic monitoring method is to be used for comparing and calibrating gravity responses against established seismological magnitude where seismic activities appear to accompany mass anomaly.Results from plates velocity model, computed strain parameters and calibrated isolated gravity anomalies are integrated to predict the impact in the form of pressure necessary to cause rupture in the overlying lithospheric plate and the time required for the rupture to take place at the onset of the impact.

This is used to develop a final model that notes the lithospheres yield point, compares it with instantaneous lithospheric pressure and uses these information to determine when the yield point may likely be exceeded on instantaneous basis, and subsequently predict the time when a lithospheric rupture will occur, and its expected magnitude.

The research is in line with sustainable cities and settlement goal (Sustainable Development Goal 11).REMCRUMR intuitively considers the concept of isolating the alterations to the ambient gravity field caused by subsurface mass-redistribution that is usually precursor to the emergence of earthquakes in near-real time with a view to establishing the character of the potential corresponding seismic activity before it emerges.