ESTimation of the prehistoric population of Eurasia based on a large number of Records

Understanding population trends over the past 12,000-years is crucial for unraveling the complexities of social development.

Population size influences social structures, exchange systems, environmental interactions, cultural transmission, and societal resilience.

Current global population figures, derived since the 1970s, are educated guesses based on limited data and deductive methods, hindering accurate prehistoric assessments.

Regional studies, emerging data sources, and innovative methods offer new possibilities, exemplified by the XRONOS database, a significant contribution from our research group.The ESTER project proposes a groundbreaking approach, employing hierarchical Bayesian modeling and data assimilation techniques to integrate heterogeneous big data into population development models.

This method evaluates data reliability, compensates for missing information, and facilitates regionalized estimates balancing varying data availability.

Focused on Europe and Western Asia from 12,000 to 2,000 BP, the project aims to provide the first big-data-based regionalized population estimate.

Sub-projects investigate climatic shifts, societal collapses, and the impact of innovations like agriculture on population dynamics.

The project aligns with Ester Boserup's theories, reflecting her positive vision of humanity capable of change.The ESTER project introduces a novel methodology, offering valid bases for investigating cultural and social configurations dependent on population numbers. It provides confidence intervals, 50-year temporal resolution, and absolute population numbers.

These results can test causal relationships with climatic changes and volcanic eruptions.

Beyond archaeology, they offer indicators for human impact and land use, aiding various palaeosciences in investigating human-environment relationships with unprecedented quality and reliability, fostering awareness of our past and its connection to ongoing global change.