Advancing integrated risk assessments of cropping systems in sub-Saharan Africa

In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), attaining food security is crucial for the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal of 'Zero Hunger'. Despite this, malnutrition rates of SSA in 2022 have deteriorated compared to 2010.

Climate change further compounds this challenge, as it affects the SSA cropping system—the bedrock for the local food system but highly vulnerable to environmental shifts.

The condition seems more severe here in the future: not only a higher frequency of extreme weather events occurring but also more outbreaks of pests and diseases.

Surprisingly, most agricultural risk analyses on SSA have overlooked the impact of pests because few regional crop models can address its simulation.

Moreover, most studies about SSA focused on quantifying yield loss risk but the overarching goal of agriculture risk assessment should be to elucidate the associated economic ramifications as a basis for policy responses.

This project, IRACS, seeks to answer: ""What is the integrated risk of crop failures in SSA under climate change, and what are its subsequent economic implications?"" To tackle this, the IRACS will first develop a new pest model. This will be integrated with an enhanced crop model to better predict crop failure risks.

Subsequently, applying future scenario datasets, this coupled model will assess potential yield loss in SSA. An integrated assessment model, GLOBIOM, will then be employed to assess the associated economic impacts.

Ultimately, the IRACS initiative aims to not only deepen understanding of the interplay between climate change, cropping systems, and farmer livelihoods in SSA but also show how to combine biophysical models with economic models to investigate climate change impact effectively.