TowArd sustainable foresigHt capabilitiEs for increAseD Civil Security

With the rise of potentially disruptive technologies such as artificial intelligence and virtual reality, a particular challenge has emerged for LEAs and other civil security practitioners.

Tasked with fostering safe societies and protecting European citizens from new forms of criminality, they need to pre-empt technological evolutions, turning potential threats into opportunities, and anticipate the operational future of policing.Technology foresight is one possible anticipatory process.

However, pure technology watch-based approaches are not helpful for decision-making if not embedded in a qualitative assessment of threats and capabilities.

Hence the need to move towards a comprehensive foresight framework which is the rationale behind AHEAD.Standing for TowArd TecHnological ForEsight for IncreAseD Security, AHEAD is a LEA-led project which will adopt a 360-degree approach accounting for megatrends but also contextual elements (i.e. legal, ethical, societal and economic) to design and operationalise a sustainable capability-based civil security foresight framework.

Tested through iterative Foresight Exercises addressing the five Destinations of the Horizon Europe Cluster 3 (Fighting crime and terrorism, Border management, Resilient infrastructure, Increased cybersecurity and Disaster-resilient society), this framework will be tailored to the needs of civil security practitioners to generate “evidence-based” capability roadmaps.Such roadmaps will translate the foresight process’ outcomes into concrete courses of actions to support decision- and policy-makers at EU and national levels when deciding on strategies and policy actions in the field of civil security, including the programming of security research and innovation investments.

By enhancing a forward-looking culture in civil security, AHEAD will contribute to the strategy put forward in the European Commission's Foresight Agenda to embed in a more systematic way strategic foresight into policy-making.