Dependency of future climate projections on South Atlantic heat and salt transport modulated by interocean exchanges

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a complex system of upper and deep ocean currents that redistributes heat between the Southern and Northern Hemisphere.

Changes in the AMOC modulate European and global climate, and represent a key uncertainty for future climate projections.

Over the last decades, climate scientists have related changes in the AMOC mainly to oceanic changes in the Northern Hemisphere, though there is increasing evidence for additional Southern Hemisphere origins.

Conceptual studies with numerical ocean models and paleoclimate records suggest that changes in the South Atlantic heat and salt transport due to altered exchange processes with the Indian and Pacific Ocean can impact the strength and stability of the AMOC.

However, it is unclear how these processes are represented in current climate models.The overall goal of CLIMSATE is to unravel how future climate projections depend on the simulated heat and salt transports in the South Atlantic, with a focus on the role of interocean exchange processes.

To achieve this, I will develop an advanced framework for analyzing the simulated South Atlantic heat and salt transports based on virtual particle tracking methods, and then apply it to a representative ensemble of state-of-the-art climate models.

I will elucidate the processes that determine the mean heat and salt transport in the South Atlantic and their changes under anthropogenic climate change, and how the heat and salt transport changes in the South Atlantic are linked to the strength of AMOC.

The project results will improve future climate assessments and hence directly contribute to the ‘Adaptation to climate change’ mission of Horizon Europe.

The training activities (e.g., in software development) and targeted career development measures will allow me to consolidate my research profile and skill set in view of my ambition to become an independent and impactful research leader.